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To sin tax or not to sin tax
not entirely sure what you are getting at.. but keep in mind that just because an oil company leases land, does not mean it will drill there. Certainly it means they are very interested, and intend to drill there.. but frequently other factors come into play that can change this, for better or worse.
Oil prices, the success/failure of other projects within the company, changing policies at the state or federal level, landowners, the success/failure of surrounding wells, and sometimes just plain old geology.
Not everything has to be a conspiracy :)